Friday, April 29, 2022

Why Canada’s struggles at the U18s could affect at least one USHL’s second round outcome

The best of three format the USHL uses in the first two rounds barely gives you a chance to catch your breath between series.

But here we are, facing the start of round two.


To make this as quick as possible, let’s get to the predictions:


EASTERN CONFERENCE: 


(1) Chicago vs (5) Madison


Why Chicago will win: The Steel dodged a massive bullet when Canada lost in the quarter finals at the IIHF Spring Under 18 tournament in Germany. Adam Fantilli and Nick Moldenhauer would have missed the first two games of the tournament, and as the absence of Michael Mastrodominico showed in Lincoln (gone to the same tournament), leaving throws off chemistry. Chicago led the East Division again, although they were not as dominant as last season. This year’s team doesn’t mind a grinding game, but once again, they’re at the bottom of the league in penalty minutes. 


Why Madison will win: The Capitols posted a 4-6-0 record against Chicago this year, and many of those games were very close and entertaining. Madison has played up to the level of their opponent when needed throughout the year, and they showed in round one that they’re built for a playoff run.


Prediction: Madison is likely to win at home in game one, putting the pressure on the Steel. The question is how quickly Fantilli and Moldenhauer fit back in with the team. In this case, the first round bye was huge - the Steel never got used to being without them. That will be the difference in a very close series. Steel in three.


(2) Dubuque vs (4) Muskegon


Why Dubuque will win: The Saints have been explosive at times this season, and have tended to get into high scoring games. How will that translate to playoff hockey? 


Why Muskegon will win: A solid second half of the season moved the Lumberjacks up the rankings, and they were nothing short of awesome in the first round against Cedar Rapids.


Prediction: Muskegon matches up well with Dubuque, going 4-2-0-1 against the Saints in the regular season. The Lumberjacks are hot at the right time. Muskegon in three.


WESTERN CONFERENCE:


(1)Tri-City vs (4) Omaha


Why Tri-City will win: The league’s best regular season team, they broke more team  records than they’re is space to print. Not to mention a few Tier I era USHL records. Two solid goaltenders, and there are no flaws on this team.


Why Omaha will win: The Lancers have overcome adversity, turmoil, change, and keep doing so in impressive fashion. At some point, they feel like a team of destiny 


Prediction: Don’t bet against the Lancers, we have learned that all season. But the clock has to strike midnight sometime - and it will be against the league’s elite. Tri-City in two.


(2) Sioux City vs (5) Waterloo


Why Sioux City will win: The second place team in the West, Sioux City dodged a bullet - in many people’s minds - by not playing Lincoln, who gave them trouble in the regular season. Instead, they face Waterloo, who they went 4-1-1-0 against in the regular season.


Why Waterloo will win: Having game one at home is huge - the Black Hawks won round one on the road, but their Olympic-sized ice gives them a huge home ice advantage. Look for them to win one game at home and then hope for the split in Sioux City.


Prediction: This one goes the distance, with the home team winning every game. Sioux City in three. 

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