It’s not a marathon, it’s a sprint.
Unlike the best of seven series that make hockey playoffs so exciting, the USHL does a best of three in the first two rounds, followed by best of five series in the conference finals and Clark Cup Finals. To make things worse, the first round is entirely at the higher seed, meaning 4 of the 12 playoff teams could have no home games at all.
It’s not ideal. It doesn’t make sense. But it is what it is.
Upsets are likely in this format. When and where, ironically, could come down to suspension and a tournament normally reserved for eliminated players.
The IIHF Spring Under 18 tournament is typically for players eliminated from the playoffs - a major junior or Canadian junior A/B player can not go unless their team is out. But four key USHL players - Adam Fantilli (Canada) and Nicholas Moldenhauer (Canada) of Chicago, Michael Mastrodomenico (Canada) of Lincoln, and Gavin Brindley (USA) of Tri-City will miss the entire first round - not an issue for Chicago and Tri-City as they have opening round byes - plus likely the first two games of the best-of-three round two.
To add to the mess, there are suspensions out there - some of which are known, some of which are a mystery.
So playing a guessing game in a few situations, here are my round one predictions:
WEST (3) Lincoln vs (6) Waterloo
Why Lincoln will win: The Stars went 5-1-1 against Waterloo, and host their first playoff series in several years. The atmosphere should be electric at the Ice Box, but three straight (potentially) weeknight games at 6 pm might put a damper on that. Lincoln spent most of the season in a three-way battle for second in the West, and have a solid goaltending tandem in Cameron Whitehead and Kaiden Mberko.
Why Waterloo will win: It’s more like why Lincoln could lose. Without Mastrodominico, the Stars take one hit. The second hit comes in the unknown status of Noah Laba, who was suspended - apparently for four games - but it’s easier to find nuclear codes than USHL suspensions. If he is suspended, that’s another big hit. Mberko has also been listed as injured for the past few games. If he doesn’t come back and the series goes the limit, that means Lincoln - and Whitehead - will play five games in six nights. Then again, so will Waterloo.
PREDICTION: This is going to be a lot tougher than if Lincoln had their full lineup. It will be tight, but the Stars in three.
(4) Omaha vs (5) Fargo
Why Omaha will win: No team has overcome more adversity and change through the season than the Lancers. Despite that, until the final month, they were in a tight battle for second place in the Western Conference. Still, the clock seems to have struck midnight, and by the end, Omaha was just four points ahead of Fargo.
Why Fargo will win: After spending most of the season in sixth, the Force finished 6-3-0-1 and ended up just four points out of fourth. The Force pulled off the playoff upsets last year after a strong end to the season, and they seem poised to do the same this year.
PREDICTION: It’s very hard to win on the road in this bizarre first round format, where all games are at the higher seed. Still, Fargo is on a roll, and Omaha is struggling entering the playoffs. Again, it will be close, but Fargo in three.
EAST (3) Muskegon vs (6) Cedar Rapids
Why Muskegon will win: Just 10 points separate third from sixth, so this is a closer matchup than it appears. Having home ice is massive in this format. The Lumberjacks were second in goals scored in the season, but a red flag is the defense - they gave up the third-most goals in the league, and were the only playoff team in the bottom five. Still - they face a Cedar Rapids team with just 6 road wins.
Why Cedar Rapids will win: Not only do they come into the playoffs playing some of their best hockey of the year, this is a team built for the postseason - albeit a more traditional best of seven style postseason. They line match better than anyone - a tactic most seem to ignore these days - getting Adam Flamming’s line and Joe Fleming’s defensive unit against the top lines of Mukegon is harder on the road, but they’ve tended to find a way when they play a team a few nights in short order.
PREDICTION: On paper, looking at the road record, it would be a big upset for Cedar Rapids to win. Still, they’re built for the playoffs and have been playing playoff intensity for weeks just to get there. Roughriders in three.
(4) Youngstown vs (5) Madison
Why Youngstown will win: Defense wins championships, and only Chicago gave up less goals in the East. On the other hand, they scored the fewest goals in the conference, so getting out to an early lead will be key for the Phantoms.
Why Madison will win: The Capitols seem to play their best games against the strongest opponents and the key times of the season. They got off to a great start before struggling in mid-season, but seem to have corrected the course of late.
PREDICTION: A total pick ‘em. You would think the home ice advantage would make the difference in that situation, but there’s a nagging feeling that Madison has an extra gear - one we’ve seen late in a few games this year. Capitols in three.
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