Why Canada’s struggles at the U18s could affect at least one USHL’s second round outcome

The best of three format the USHL uses in the first two rounds barely gives you a chance to catch your breath between series.

But here we are, facing the start of round two.

To make this as quick as possible, let’s get to the predictions:

EASTERN CONFERENCE: 

(1) Chicago vs (5) Madison

Why Chicago will win: The Steel dodged a massive bullet when Canada lost in the quarter finals at the IIHF Spring Under 18 tournament in Germany. Adam Fantilli and Nick Moldenhauer would have missed the first two games of the tournament, and as the absence of Michael Mastrodominico showed in Lincoln (gone to the same tournament), leaving throws off chemistry. Chicago led the East Division again, although they were not as dominant as last season. This year’s team doesn’t mind a grinding game, but once again, they’re at the bottom of the league in penalty minutes. 

Why Madison will win: The Capitols posted a 4-6-0 record against Chicago this year, and many of those games were very close and entertaining. Madison has played up to the level of their opponent when needed throughout the year, and they showed in round one that they’re built for a playoff run.

Prediction: Madison is likely to win at home in game one, putting the pressure on the Steel. The question is how quickly Fantilli and Moldenhauer fit back in with the team. In this case, the first round bye was huge - the Steel never got used to being without them. That will be the difference in a very close series. Steel in three.

(2) Dubuque vs (4) Muskegon

Why Dubuque will win: The Saints have been explosive at times this season, and have tended to get into high scoring games. How will that translate to playoff hockey? 

Why Muskegon will win: A solid second half of the season moved the Lumberjacks up the rankings, and they were nothing short of awesome in the first round against Cedar Rapids.

Prediction: Muskegon matches up well with Dubuque, going 4-2-0-1 against the Saints in the regular season. The Lumberjacks are hot at the right time. Muskegon in three.

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

(1)Tri-City vs (4) Omaha

Why Tri-City will win: The league’s best regular season team, they broke more team  records than they’re is space to print. Not to mention a few Tier I era USHL records. Two solid goaltenders, and there are no flaws on this team.

Why Omaha will win: The Lancers have overcome adversity, turmoil, change, and keep doing so in impressive fashion. At some point, they feel like a team of destiny 

Prediction: Don’t bet against the Lancers, we have learned that all season. But the clock has to strike midnight sometime - and it will be against the league’s elite. Tri-City in two.

(2) Sioux City vs (5) Waterloo

Why Sioux City will win: The second place team in the West, Sioux City dodged a bullet - in many people’s minds - by not playing Lincoln, who gave them trouble in the regular season. Instead, they face Waterloo, who they went 4-1-1-0 against in the regular season.

Why Waterloo will win: Having game one at home is huge - the Black Hawks won round one on the road, but their Olympic-sized ice gives them a huge home ice advantage. Look for them to win one game at home and then hope for the split in Sioux City.

Prediction: This one goes the distance, with the home team winning every game. Sioux City in three. 

USHL round one predictions: Bizarre three-day, all-weekday USHL playoff format could lead to upsets

It’s not a marathon, it’s a sprint.

Unlike the best of seven series that make hockey playoffs so exciting, the USHL does a best of three in the first two rounds, followed by best of five series in the conference finals and Clark Cup Finals. To make things worse, the first round is entirely at the higher seed, meaning 4 of the 12 playoff teams could have no home games at all.

It’s not ideal. It doesn’t make sense. But it is what it is.

Upsets are likely in this format. When and where, ironically, could come down to suspension and a tournament normally reserved for eliminated players.

The IIHF Spring Under 18 tournament is typically for players eliminated from the playoffs - a major junior or Canadian junior A/B player can not go unless their team is out. But four key USHL players - Adam Fantilli (Canada) and Nicholas Moldenhauer (Canada) of Chicago, Michael Mastrodomenico (Canada) of Lincoln, and Gavin Brindley (USA) of Tri-City will miss the entire first round - not an issue for Chicago and Tri-City as they have opening round byes - plus likely the first two games of the best-of-three round two.

To add to the mess, there are suspensions out there - some of which are known, some of which are a mystery. 

So playing a guessing game in a few situations, here are my round one predictions:

WEST (3) Lincoln vs (6) Waterloo

Why Lincoln will win: The Stars went 5-1-1 against Waterloo, and host their first playoff series in several years. The atmosphere should be electric at the Ice Box, but three straight (potentially) weeknight games at 6 pm might put a damper on that. Lincoln spent most of the season in a three-way battle for second in the West, and have a solid goaltending tandem in Cameron Whitehead and Kaiden Mberko.

Why Waterloo will win: It’s more like why Lincoln could lose. Without Mastrodominico, the Stars take one hit. The second hit comes in the unknown status of Noah Laba, who was suspended - apparently for four games - but it’s easier to find nuclear codes than USHL suspensions. If he is suspended, that’s another big hit. Mberko has also been listed as injured for the past few games. If he doesn’t come back and the series goes the limit, that means Lincoln - and Whitehead - will play five games in six nights. Then again, so will Waterloo.

PREDICTION: This is going to be a lot tougher than if Lincoln had their full lineup. It will be tight, but the Stars in three. 

(4) Omaha vs (5) Fargo

Why Omaha will win: No team has overcome more adversity and change through the season than the Lancers. Despite that, until the final month, they were in a tight battle for second place in the Western Conference. Still, the clock seems to have struck midnight, and by the end, Omaha was just four points ahead of Fargo. 

Why Fargo will win: After spending most of the season in sixth, the Force finished 6-3-0-1 and ended up just four points out of fourth. The Force pulled off the playoff upsets last year after a strong end to the season, and they seem poised to do the same this year.

PREDICTION: It’s very hard to win on the road in this bizarre first round format, where all games are at the higher seed. Still, Fargo is on a roll, and Omaha is struggling entering the playoffs. Again, it will be close, but Fargo in three. 

EAST (3) Muskegon vs (6) Cedar Rapids

Why Muskegon will win: Just 10 points separate third from sixth, so this is a closer matchup than it appears. Having home ice is massive in this format. The Lumberjacks were second in goals scored in the season, but a red flag is the defense - they gave up the third-most goals in the league, and were the only playoff team in the bottom five. Still - they face a Cedar Rapids team with just 6 road wins. 

Why Cedar Rapids will win: Not only do they come into the playoffs playing some of their best hockey of the year, this is a team built for the postseason - albeit a more traditional best of seven style postseason. They line match better than anyone - a tactic most seem to ignore these days - getting Adam Flamming’s line and Joe Fleming’s defensive unit against the top lines of Mukegon is harder on the road, but they’ve tended to find a way when they play a team a few nights in short order.

PREDICTION: On paper, looking at the road record, it would be a big upset for Cedar Rapids to win. Still, they’re built for the playoffs and have been playing playoff  intensity for weeks just to get there. Roughriders in three. 

(4) Youngstown vs (5) Madison

Why Youngstown will win: Defense wins championships, and only Chicago gave up less goals in the East. On the other hand, they scored the fewest goals in the conference, so getting out to an early lead will be key for the Phantoms.

Why Madison will win: The Capitols seem to play their best games against the strongest opponents and the key times of the season. They got off to a great start before struggling in mid-season, but seem to have corrected the course of late.

PREDICTION: A total pick ‘em. You would think the home ice advantage would make the difference in that situation, but there’s a nagging feeling that Madison has an extra gear - one we’ve seen late in a few games this year. Capitols in three. 

USHL playoff format leaves a lot to be desired - including a plethora of weeknight games

It’s a confusing year in the USHL. 

First of all, the league is the only league to allow players to go to the Spring IIHF Under 18 tournament if their team has not been eliminated from the playoffs. Four players from three teams, including Chicago’s Adam Fantilli, will be gone until likely the third game of the second round.

Then the playoffs themselves. A best-of-three in three nights in round one - all on weeknights, all in the same city. A best-of-three in round two - one at the lower seed, two at the higher seed. Finally, at least a best-of-five in the conference finals and the Clark Cup Finals - but still no best-of-seven like major junior or all Canadian junior A and B leagues have in every round.  

Here’s what I really don’t get - the playoffs - one reason they’re short is so players don’t have to play weeknights (or I’ve been told) is so players don’t have to play weeknights - either in the playoffs or in the regular season - so they don’t have to miss school. 

Yet say the first round series in the East is Mon-Tues-Wed (it’s either that or Tues-Wed-Thurs, the only options). One team could potentially play Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday in round one, then come home Saturday night, then play the following Monday and Tuesday in Chicago for round two. Let’s say it’s Youngstown. By my count, that is four school days missed one week, three the next, and at the more important time of the school year - near the end. 

So…I don’t get this playoff format. Again, to repeat, a team could play Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, with only the Saturday game at home. We play all year virtually exclusively on Fri, Sat, and Sun, then we get to the playoffs and we play mainly on weeknights?

Then the league will say the attendance is down, so we need to shorten the playoffs…even though drawing three consecutive weeknights during school week/work week is almost impossible for anyone to go to all three. 

Then there’s this - Lincoln, if they go three games, play (starting in two nights, including the last two regular season games) Friday, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. 5 games in 6 nights. And without a key defenseman who will be at the Spring IIHF U18. 

What I’d really like to know is what sense this makes. Why not start the first round Fri, Sat, Sun if this is the format - then the next week, go Wed, Fri, Sat for round two. Yes, we get done a few nights later. Yes, it adds a week to the season. But surely we could save a week in the regular season by adding a couple of three in threes - not ideal, but a lot better in the season than the playoffs.