2024-25 USHL East Predictions - Cedar Rapids favored in tough Eastern Conference

 

1. Cedar Rapids
2. Dubuque
3. Youngstown
4. Chicago
5. Madison
6. Muskegon
7. Green Bay 
8. USNDTP

The Eastern Conference seems as competitive as ever, where the difference between second and seventh may not be decided until late in the season. 

But if all goes according to script, it will be Cedar Rapids taking home the division crown. 

Amine Hajibi leads the way as the leading scorer among all East clubs, tallying 46 points last year. But it’s the depth and team grit of the Roughriders that should propel the team to the division title. They were unstoppable in the preseason, going 5-0 with relative ease. 

Dubuque is always competitive in the Eastern Conference, and this year is no exception. Michael Barron stands just 5’5”, but he lets his play do the talking. With 40 points last year, Barron is one of the league’s top returning forwards and will lead another solid group of forwards for the Saints. 

With 14 returners combining for 202 points last season, Youngstown trails only Dubuque in points returning (thanks to Layla Lamborn for the statistics!). Look for the Phantoms to stay in contention all season once again.

Chicago enters the season under the radar, picked by many observers to miss the playoffs. Yet if all goes well, Chicago could contend for the division title. Tender Adam Valentini put up an astounding 134 points in 57 games for the Toronto Marlboros U16 team in the GTHL last year, a league that has produced many of the NHL’s superstars, including Connor McDavid, who played for the same Marlboros club. Valentini, a Michigan commit, could be one of the league’s marquee players from day one. 

Madison’s typical blueprint of hard work and depth should be good enough to make the playoffs once again. North Dakota Caleb Heil should have a big impact between the pipes for the Capitols. 

Muskegon never falls too far off the pace, although they lost a lot of firepower from last season and do not have a home game for the first month or so because of arena renovations. David Klee posted 40 points last season and will be looked at to be a key player this season. 

Green Bay returns just 10 players from last season, the third lowest total in the league. Yet the Gamblers always find a way to be competitive, and should stay in the mix all season. 

The US NDTP is always a mystery, as the under 17 squad plays about two-thirds of the games while the under 18s play the other third. The result is a very unbalanced schedule, and their success often depends on which squad is playing for which games. Once again, they are unlikely to make the playoffs for that reason. 

2024-25 USHL West Predictions - Muskies, Storm to battle for division title

 

1. Sioux City
2. Tri-City
3. Lincoln
4. Omaha
5. Sioux Falls
6. Waterloo
7. Fargo
8. Des Moines

The West will be interesting to watch this year. There’s some normal powers in a rebuild, some teams that look greatly improved, and some new coaches that could make a huge impact. 

One thing that seems clear is Sioux City will be good. With a lot of returners on goal, including  starting goalie Samuel Urban, the roster looks loaded. 

Add in the Muskies returning to their physical style / 11 fights over two preseason games - and this looks like a classic Sioux City team. 

Tri-City is picked closer to the middle of the pack by many, but they should challenge Sioux City for the division title. 

16-year-old tender Ilya Morozov should electrify from day one. Born in Moscow, he comes from the hyper-competitive Greater Toronto Hockey League, where he led all U16 midget players in scoring last season. He has already committed to Miami for 2026-27.

Also look for a big year from Artemi Nizamayev. The Storm should be electrifying to watch this year. 

From here, it gets murky. It is very conceivable to see the next theee finish in any order. Lincoln seems to have the size and grit to go with veteran experience  Blake Montgomery should have another huge year, while Matt Maltais epitomizes tradional intense hockey work ethic. 

Omaha will be an interesting club to watch. New Coach Lennie Childs seems to have his squad on the same wavelength, and the preseason has impressed. 

Nick Sykora seems primed for a big year, along with Nick Sykora and Sam Sheetz. Hunter Ramos, who came over in a trade from Youngstown, has been outstanding in preseason. 

The defense has impressive size, and Mikhail Yegorov/Kam Hendrickson provide a great 1-2 option between the pipes. 

Sioux Falls enters the season in a unique position with almost all players having scholarships in place or having been drafted by the NHL. On paper, this team could easily move up a few spots. 

The sole concern might be staying motivated if the team hits a slump, with most players having their future plans tied down. This is hard to pick the Herd this low - it would not be a surprise if they end up contending in the very tight West. 

Waterloo is also hard to pick at sixth, especially with starting goalie Cam Vachon returning. Once again, this is another team that could easily move up a few spots. 

Fargo missing the playoffs seems unconceivable, but with just eight returnees, this is a young team. The Force have a solid reputation, if they start decent and make some moves to contend again, this prediction won’t age well. Either way, the future is still bright in Fargo. 

Des Moines has faced issues such as a last minute arena change, and the key right is just maintaining momentum and getting fans to know the road to West Des Moines. It’s a rebuilding year in Central Iowa - but at least short term, the arena issue has worked out  And that’s the key thing.

USHL 22-23 preview: Purple Reign? Youngstown favorites in top-heavy East, while West could be Star struck

 Eastern Conference Preview

1. Youngstown - Without the fanfare of other teams in the conference, the Phantoms have put together a team that seems to have no weaknesses. A very impressive pre-season saw Youngstown look good against teams from 3 leagues - including 3 combined wins against Muskegon and Chicago. The Phantoms are big, fast, physical, have solid goaltending - there is no weakness. If all things go right, they could have the division wrapped up by Christmas. 
2. Muskegon - It’s expected to be a three way race at the top of the East, and Muskegon has the firepower to compete with anyone. They struggled in the preseason, but probably had the toughest schedule. If there’s a team that could go either way from championship contention to playoff battle, this could be it - or it could be the Chicago Steel (more to come). The massive improvement in Youngstown has created a lot of question marks - and Muskegon plays Youngstown as much as anyone in the league - the schedule won’t be easy. 
3. Chicago - The Steel were the youngest team in the league last year, so there’s a lot of returners. And while Adam Fantilli is gone, in comes possible first overall 2024 NHL draft pick Macklin Celebrini, who has lived up to the hype in the preseason, even if it doesn’t show on the stats sheet. The question - as it often is - the Steel tend to play a less physical style than many teams, and a year after the most physical team won the Clark Cup, expect more teams to adopt that style. Chicago’s not designed for that - if they adjust, they’ll be in the hunt. If not, this could be a rare long season in Geneva. 
4. Dubuque - As usual, the Saints will score goals, but the key could be Swedish goalie Marcus Brännman. The 19 year old comes highly touted, enough so Dubuque felt comfortable dealing potential star goalie, Slovakian Michael Hrabel, to Omaha. If he plays as well as expected, Dubuque could move up a couple of spots. Also of note - Martin St. Louis has two sons on the team - defenseman Mason (committed to Harvard) and forward Ryan, who played with the NTDP two years ago before playing for Northeastern last year. 
5. Cedar Rapids - If the preseason is any indication, look for the Riders to be one of the tougher teams in the East again this year. They lost some key ingredients - last year, home ice mattered more to them than anyone else. If that’s the case again this year, logic dictates they’ll be winning as much as they lose. Bruno Bruveris should get the starting nod in goal once again after backstopping Latvia to an impressive performance at the unusually timed World Juniors last month. 
6. Madison - The Capitols surprised many by going to the Clark Cup finals last year. It was a team-first concept, and there’s no reason to believe it will be any different this year. Winning the East might be a tall order though, as the conference looks stronger top to bottom than a year ago. Eino Rissanen, who has been playing in the National League in Switzerland (the country’s top league and one of the strongest European leagues), likely has the inside track on starting in net. 
7. Green Bay - It’s tough to pick anyone to miss the playoffs in this conference, and the Gamblers are never too far from the top. And the beer can races are worth the price of admission alone! But the Gamblers will be fun as well. Diminutive Ukrainian Mykhailo Danylov (5’8”, 146 lbs.) comes highly touted from the Phoenix Jr. Coyotes program, and already has a scholarship set for Michigan State at 2024-25. 
8. USA NTDP - When the Under 18s play, they are as good as any team in the league. But they only are slated to play 20 games, while the Under 17s will play 42. The Under 17s have not been that strong in recent years, the combination likely means another year without playoffs for the league’s most unique team.

Western Conference Preview

1. Lincoln - This is going to come as a surprise to some people. But they have the goaltending back in Cameron Whitehead, the grit in Doug Grimes, and some high profile newcomers in Boston Buckberger, Ralfs Veinbergs, and Michael Mesic, who put up good numbers with NAHL North Iowa last season. And the physicality is back - the Stars had a few scraps in the preseason, winning most of them. This feels the most like a traditional Stars team in years, and in a league that’s trending bigger and more physical this year - Lincoln appears set to contend.
2. Fargo - There is no shortage of firepower in Fargo, who scored 17 goals over their last 3 preseason games. If the goaltending and defense hold up, the Force will be a threat to go to their second Clark Cup Final in three seasons. The offense is led by returner Cole Knuble, who posted 49 points in 62 games last year. His dad, Mike, had a lengthy NHL career. The Force return a larger percentage of last year’s roster than most teams, and considering they were quite strong down the stretch, that could be a big key for Fargo.
3. Sioux City - It’s a new coach, a new GM, and a lot of new faces in Sioux City this year, but the defending Clark Cup champions have found a way to be just as dominant in the preseason as they were in the postseason last year. What won’t change is the style of play - the Musketeers will battle, wear you down, and do the little things right - the things that win hockey games. Axel Mangbo is back in goal, and will likely get the starting nod.
4. Tri-City - They’ve lost some key pieces and there are some question marks, but Tri-City has looked good in the preseason, playing with their characteristic confidence and swagger. Sebastian Wraneschitz, who stood out in the 2021 World Juniors, will be back in net, and this time, should be the clear starter. Wraneschitz played well when Arsenii Sergeev was unavailable from suspension late last year, and he’s capable of being the best goaltender in the league. As usual, the Storm have a lot of fire power, and an Anthony Noreen-coached team will not back down when it comes to winning the physical battles. The only drawback, as with Lincoln, Omaha and Sioux City? These four teams spend more than half of their schedule playing each other. Somebody has to lose each night. 
5. Waterloo - There’s a lot of excitement around the Black Hawks, and for good reason. Emmett Croteau returns in goal, first round draft pick (of the other Blackhawks - the ones in Chicago) Sam Rinzel will play his first full season of USHL after splitting last year between prep hockey and the USHL, and the team has plenty of speed and firepower. Waterloo surprised many observers by taking out Lincoln in the first round last year - in the USHL’s strange 3 games in 3 nights in one city first round, accomplishing that task on the road is not easy. This should give the Hawks some experience and confidence headed into what should be a season-long battle between the West’s top clubs.
6. Omaha - There wasn’t much cause for optimism in the preseason, as the Lancers went 0-5 in games decided by regulation and 1-0 in overtime games. They were outscored 23-10 in the process. However, returning goaltender Kevin Pasche played just one game - admittedly, it was a rough outing as he gave up 6 goals on 22 shots in a 6-3 loss to Lincoln - but Pasche has proven himself as a top starting goalie. Pasche alone makes the Lancers contenders. Newcomer Alex Bump was the top high school player in Minnesota last season and has not been afraid to mix it up in the preseason.
7. Sioux Falls - After two uncharacteristically down years, the Stampede will be much more competitive this year. The question is, in a very tight Western Conference, who will be the odd teams out? The Herd have looked good in preseason, and will be competitive every night. If there’s a question mark, it is in goal, where Jackson Irving, who posted good numbers with Cushing Academy last year, will battle with 6’7” 20 year old Aidan Spooner for the start. Spooner played 19 games in the OHL with Kingston last year, which means he won’t be eligible for the NCAA, since the NCAA oddly considers major junior players “professional.”
8. Des Moines - Change is once again the key word in Des Moines, who have struggled to recapture the glory days of the late 1990s, when they were winning cups with regularity. This is the final year in the old arena, which has had many names, but was initially known as the Metro Ice Sports Arena. The arena has plenty of stories to tell, and was originally built by transplants - largely from Canada - to get hockey going in the area. The year may feel a bit nostalgic for that reason, but Des Moines looks to improve on last season, where a fast start turned into a long season. In the Western Conference, it won’t be an easy task.

World Junior attendance is embarrassingly low - but don’t blame the fans

So maybe the World Juniors in August isn’t working after all. Or maybe the Hockey Canada scandals are affecting attendance. Or maybe people are just burned out on these tournaments. But there was a time in Canada, way back - say, a couple of years ago - that the World Juniors would be held in 18,000 seat arenas and nearly be sold out on tournament sales.

Then there’s this year. The Canada games will draw best most likely, since it’s in Canada, but looking at the seat map on Ticketmaster for tomorrow’s Canada vs Latvia game, it would be a stretch to say there’s more than 2,000 tickets sold in an 18,000 seat arena. Of course, tournament organizers/Hockey Canada aren’t helping themselves by pricing the cheapest seats at $77 (CDN) and the priciest at $233 (CDN). Want cheaper seats in the upper level? Forget it. It’s closed. 

The USA vs Germany game tonight is selling better, there’s probably 4,000 tickets sold. This has to be a first in a Canadian city — the US outdrawing Canada — but the prices start at $20 and go to $88 (again - in Canadian dollars, which is roughly 20% lower in value than the US dollar).

Wondering about the gold medal game? There might be 3-4,000 tickets sold - but with a face value price range of $178 to $743, it’s hard to imagine there are any sold at all. By comparison, in 1999 in Winnipeg, good side seats were $25 for the final. I know because I was there and I still have the ticket.

In today’s dollars, it’s impossible to argue that’s more than $100, and that would really be a stretch  

Your choice - a pair of season tickets to a USHL team or one ticket to the gold medal game.

How bad was it at Tuesday’s exciting 5-4 Czechia win over Slovakia, the first game of the tournament? The summary just says “-“ for attendance. Actual people at the game? It  would be a stretch to say 100. That’s not a typo.

Also of note is the complete lack of advertising. The only board ads are from Tissot (as always at these tournaments - the watch provider) and the IIHF…plus two Hockey Canada ads promoting the World Juniors in Ottawa and Montreal at Christmas. Most advertisers have cut ties with Hockey Canada over the current scandal.

As this tournament has grown, it tends to sell out key games wherever it goes - Sweden, Finland, Russia (not right now, but traditionally..) - this could be the lowest attended World Juniors for a few years. But perhaps that’s what happens when you combine a national Hockey Canada scandal, a summer tournament, and ticket prices that are completely out of line.

If anything good comes from this, it is hopefully a reset of ticket prices to a sane level, where the average fan can afford to go. 

The sad part is the players deserve better. Many players grow up dreaming of the atmosphere at this tournament, and this isn’t what it should be like.

Greed has made it unaffordable, and poor management and cover-ups have made Hockey Canada currently unpopular in their own country.

The players deserve better. The fans deserve better. But nobody is shedding a tear for the tournament’s organizers. 

Clark Cup Final: On paper, Sioux City has the edge, but Madison is no pushover

With the USHL playing limited, if any, interconference play the past two seasons, it can be tough to know how teams line up heading into the Clark Cup Final.

This year, Sioux City comes in as the favorite in the minds of many, having swept regular season champion Tri-City 3 games to 0 in the Western Conference Final. Meanwhile, Madison, who made the playoffs by just three points, defeated Youngstown 2 games to 0 (both on the road), Chicago 2 games to 1, and Muskegon 3 games to 2 en route to the final.

Madison have been the road warriors, with just 3 of their 10 games being played on home ice.

It will be a clash of styles, as the Muskies - like the Western Conference as a whole - play best when playing physical, forechecking, and controlling the play. The Eastern Conference tends towards a run and gun, skating, high scoring style of play.

The team that adapts usually wins in this situation. Sioux City comes in on a strong roll, as they finished the season strong and have been dominant in the playoffs. 

WHY SIOUX CITY WILL WIN: They just beat the regular season champions. They have physicality, goal scoring, goaltending, and just about everything else you can think of. Three of five games are in Sioux City, but that is tempered somewhat by none of those games being on a Friday or Saturday night, while Madison’s two home games are on a Friday and Saturday.

WHY MADISON WILL WIN: The Capitols have shown an ability to play up to the opponent’s level this year - it was not a big surprise to see them beat Chicago, a team they played tough all season, winning 4 of 10 matchups. On paper, Madison doesn’t seem to have the edge in many categories, but they’ve had an intangible all season that seems to serve them well come playoff time.

PREDICTION: Early in the season, this looked like the possible Clark Cup Final. Along the way, it wasn’t as clear, but by the end, this is where we are. Madison’s speed and ability to score in bunches will give Sioux City some trouble, but the Muskies are too big, too physical, and too good not to win. Sioux City in four. 

USHL Conference Finals Predictions: When it’s too close to call, rely on intangibles

 The playoffs are always a sprint, not a marathon, but the first ten days were more like a 60 yard dash.

It took just ten days to play two rounds (both best-of-three) in the USHL playoffs, including the 24 hour series between Tri-City and Omaha. There was less than 24 hours from the start of game one until the finish of game two.

Now it gets a little more intense. The rest of the way, the league shifts to best-of-five series, starting with the conference finals that begin Friday night.

And what a series it should be in each conference. The #1 and #2 seeds meet in the West, while #3 and #5 battle in the east - but this is not a surprise. The East was that close most of the season, to the point nothing can truly be considered an upset. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: #1 Tri-City (45-11-3-1) vs #2 Sioux City (41-16-4-1)

WHY TRI-CITY WILL WIN: The Storm broke so many team records and USHL Tier I records this year, it barely fits on a shirt. Actaully, it’s been proven it does, but order a large size just to be sure. The goaltending tandem of Arsenii Sergeev and Sebastien Wraneschitz is second to none. Including overtime, Tri-City won 6 of 9 games against Sioux City this year. In reality, nobody had a good record against the Storm, Tri-City was that dominant. 

WHY SIOUX CITY WILL WIN: Lost in the talk about Tri-City’s remarkable season is the fact that Sioux City tied a Tier I era team record with 41 wins. The Muskies ended the year on an 8-2-0-0 run - but then again, Tri-City finished 7-1-1-1. Sioux City had the second fewest goals against with 169…but Tri-City had the fewest at 138. On paper, it seems like these are the top two teams in many ways.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: #3 Muskegon (33-23-3-3) vs #5 Madison (30-29-3-0)

WHY MUSKEGON WILL WIN: The Lumberjacks scored 256 goals in the regular season, just four less than league-leading Tri-City. After a slow start to the season, Muskegon claimed throughout the season, although a 5-5-0-0 record in their last 10 entering the playoffs left questions in some minds. Those were erased in a sweep of Cedar Rapids and an impressive victory over Dubuque in round two.

WHY MADISON WILL WIN: It doesn’t show up on paper. The team was one game above .500, they scored 233 goals but also gave up 233, they only finished 3 points ahead of the seventh place team - a team that missed the playoffs. But the game is not played on paper. Madison has had an intangible quality all season, they seem to rise to the big games, and they’ve had some impressive comebacks. When it comes to the “it” factor - the intangibles that can’t be quantified, that’s where the Capitols seem to shine. 

PREDICTIONS: This one is the hardest series to call yet. In the past, I’ve had good luck predicting based on the first really key test of the year, how does a team do? At least in the first key test I see. A few games in, both Sioux City and Madison seemed to have that particular intangible - it sounds ridiculous, but in the past, that has been the most reliable resource I have to predict a champion. A month in, I said Sioux City vs Madison, so I better stick with it. Take the upsets, but it’s going to be close - Sioux City in 5, Madison in 5. 

Why Canada’s struggles at the U18s could affect at least one USHL’s second round outcome

The best of three format the USHL uses in the first two rounds barely gives you a chance to catch your breath between series.

But here we are, facing the start of round two.

To make this as quick as possible, let’s get to the predictions:

EASTERN CONFERENCE: 

(1) Chicago vs (5) Madison

Why Chicago will win: The Steel dodged a massive bullet when Canada lost in the quarter finals at the IIHF Spring Under 18 tournament in Germany. Adam Fantilli and Nick Moldenhauer would have missed the first two games of the tournament, and as the absence of Michael Mastrodominico showed in Lincoln (gone to the same tournament), leaving throws off chemistry. Chicago led the East Division again, although they were not as dominant as last season. This year’s team doesn’t mind a grinding game, but once again, they’re at the bottom of the league in penalty minutes. 

Why Madison will win: The Capitols posted a 4-6-0 record against Chicago this year, and many of those games were very close and entertaining. Madison has played up to the level of their opponent when needed throughout the year, and they showed in round one that they’re built for a playoff run.

Prediction: Madison is likely to win at home in game one, putting the pressure on the Steel. The question is how quickly Fantilli and Moldenhauer fit back in with the team. In this case, the first round bye was huge - the Steel never got used to being without them. That will be the difference in a very close series. Steel in three.

(2) Dubuque vs (4) Muskegon

Why Dubuque will win: The Saints have been explosive at times this season, and have tended to get into high scoring games. How will that translate to playoff hockey? 

Why Muskegon will win: A solid second half of the season moved the Lumberjacks up the rankings, and they were nothing short of awesome in the first round against Cedar Rapids.

Prediction: Muskegon matches up well with Dubuque, going 4-2-0-1 against the Saints in the regular season. The Lumberjacks are hot at the right time. Muskegon in three.

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

(1)Tri-City vs (4) Omaha

Why Tri-City will win: The league’s best regular season team, they broke more team  records than they’re is space to print. Not to mention a few Tier I era USHL records. Two solid goaltenders, and there are no flaws on this team.

Why Omaha will win: The Lancers have overcome adversity, turmoil, change, and keep doing so in impressive fashion. At some point, they feel like a team of destiny 

Prediction: Don’t bet against the Lancers, we have learned that all season. But the clock has to strike midnight sometime - and it will be against the league’s elite. Tri-City in two.

(2) Sioux City vs (5) Waterloo

Why Sioux City will win: The second place team in the West, Sioux City dodged a bullet - in many people’s minds - by not playing Lincoln, who gave them trouble in the regular season. Instead, they face Waterloo, who they went 4-1-1-0 against in the regular season.

Why Waterloo will win: Having game one at home is huge - the Black Hawks won round one on the road, but their Olympic-sized ice gives them a huge home ice advantage. Look for them to win one game at home and then hope for the split in Sioux City.

Prediction: This one goes the distance, with the home team winning every game. Sioux City in three. 

USHL round one predictions: Bizarre three-day, all-weekday USHL playoff format could lead to upsets

It’s not a marathon, it’s a sprint.

Unlike the best of seven series that make hockey playoffs so exciting, the USHL does a best of three in the first two rounds, followed by best of five series in the conference finals and Clark Cup Finals. To make things worse, the first round is entirely at the higher seed, meaning 4 of the 12 playoff teams could have no home games at all.

It’s not ideal. It doesn’t make sense. But it is what it is.

Upsets are likely in this format. When and where, ironically, could come down to suspension and a tournament normally reserved for eliminated players.

The IIHF Spring Under 18 tournament is typically for players eliminated from the playoffs - a major junior or Canadian junior A/B player can not go unless their team is out. But four key USHL players - Adam Fantilli (Canada) and Nicholas Moldenhauer (Canada) of Chicago, Michael Mastrodomenico (Canada) of Lincoln, and Gavin Brindley (USA) of Tri-City will miss the entire first round - not an issue for Chicago and Tri-City as they have opening round byes - plus likely the first two games of the best-of-three round two.

To add to the mess, there are suspensions out there - some of which are known, some of which are a mystery. 

So playing a guessing game in a few situations, here are my round one predictions:

WEST (3) Lincoln vs (6) Waterloo

Why Lincoln will win: The Stars went 5-1-1 against Waterloo, and host their first playoff series in several years. The atmosphere should be electric at the Ice Box, but three straight (potentially) weeknight games at 6 pm might put a damper on that. Lincoln spent most of the season in a three-way battle for second in the West, and have a solid goaltending tandem in Cameron Whitehead and Kaiden Mberko.

Why Waterloo will win: It’s more like why Lincoln could lose. Without Mastrodominico, the Stars take one hit. The second hit comes in the unknown status of Noah Laba, who was suspended - apparently for four games - but it’s easier to find nuclear codes than USHL suspensions. If he is suspended, that’s another big hit. Mberko has also been listed as injured for the past few games. If he doesn’t come back and the series goes the limit, that means Lincoln - and Whitehead - will play five games in six nights. Then again, so will Waterloo.

PREDICTION: This is going to be a lot tougher than if Lincoln had their full lineup. It will be tight, but the Stars in three. 

(4) Omaha vs (5) Fargo

Why Omaha will win: No team has overcome more adversity and change through the season than the Lancers. Despite that, until the final month, they were in a tight battle for second place in the Western Conference. Still, the clock seems to have struck midnight, and by the end, Omaha was just four points ahead of Fargo. 

Why Fargo will win: After spending most of the season in sixth, the Force finished 6-3-0-1 and ended up just four points out of fourth. The Force pulled off the playoff upsets last year after a strong end to the season, and they seem poised to do the same this year.

PREDICTION: It’s very hard to win on the road in this bizarre first round format, where all games are at the higher seed. Still, Fargo is on a roll, and Omaha is struggling entering the playoffs. Again, it will be close, but Fargo in three. 

EAST (3) Muskegon vs (6) Cedar Rapids

Why Muskegon will win: Just 10 points separate third from sixth, so this is a closer matchup than it appears. Having home ice is massive in this format. The Lumberjacks were second in goals scored in the season, but a red flag is the defense - they gave up the third-most goals in the league, and were the only playoff team in the bottom five. Still - they face a Cedar Rapids team with just 6 road wins. 

Why Cedar Rapids will win: Not only do they come into the playoffs playing some of their best hockey of the year, this is a team built for the postseason - albeit a more traditional best of seven style postseason. They line match better than anyone - a tactic most seem to ignore these days - getting Adam Flamming’s line and Joe Fleming’s defensive unit against the top lines of Mukegon is harder on the road, but they’ve tended to find a way when they play a team a few nights in short order.

PREDICTION: On paper, looking at the road record, it would be a big upset for Cedar Rapids to win. Still, they’re built for the playoffs and have been playing playoff  intensity for weeks just to get there. Roughriders in three. 

(4) Youngstown vs (5) Madison

Why Youngstown will win: Defense wins championships, and only Chicago gave up less goals in the East. On the other hand, they scored the fewest goals in the conference, so getting out to an early lead will be key for the Phantoms.

Why Madison will win: The Capitols seem to play their best games against the strongest opponents and the key times of the season. They got off to a great start before struggling in mid-season, but seem to have corrected the course of late.

PREDICTION: A total pick ‘em. You would think the home ice advantage would make the difference in that situation, but there’s a nagging feeling that Madison has an extra gear - one we’ve seen late in a few games this year. Capitols in three. 

USHL playoff format leaves a lot to be desired - including a plethora of weeknight games

It’s a confusing year in the USHL. 

First of all, the league is the only league to allow players to go to the Spring IIHF Under 18 tournament if their team has not been eliminated from the playoffs. Four players from three teams, including Chicago’s Adam Fantilli, will be gone until likely the third game of the second round.

Then the playoffs themselves. A best-of-three in three nights in round one - all on weeknights, all in the same city. A best-of-three in round two - one at the lower seed, two at the higher seed. Finally, at least a best-of-five in the conference finals and the Clark Cup Finals - but still no best-of-seven like major junior or all Canadian junior A and B leagues have in every round.  

Here’s what I really don’t get - the playoffs - one reason they’re short is so players don’t have to play weeknights (or I’ve been told) is so players don’t have to play weeknights - either in the playoffs or in the regular season - so they don’t have to miss school. 

Yet say the first round series in the East is Mon-Tues-Wed (it’s either that or Tues-Wed-Thurs, the only options). One team could potentially play Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday in round one, then come home Saturday night, then play the following Monday and Tuesday in Chicago for round two. Let’s say it’s Youngstown. By my count, that is four school days missed one week, three the next, and at the more important time of the school year - near the end. 

So…I don’t get this playoff format. Again, to repeat, a team could play Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, with only the Saturday game at home. We play all year virtually exclusively on Fri, Sat, and Sun, then we get to the playoffs and we play mainly on weeknights?

Then the league will say the attendance is down, so we need to shorten the playoffs…even though drawing three consecutive weeknights during school week/work week is almost impossible for anyone to go to all three. 

Then there’s this - Lincoln, if they go three games, play (starting in two nights, including the last two regular season games) Friday, Saturday, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday. 5 games in 6 nights. And without a key defenseman who will be at the Spring IIHF U18. 

What I’d really like to know is what sense this makes. Why not start the first round Fri, Sat, Sun if this is the format - then the next week, go Wed, Fri, Sat for round two. Yes, we get done a few nights later. Yes, it adds a week to the season. But surely we could save a week in the regular season by adding a couple of three in threes - not ideal, but a lot better in the season than the playoffs. 

Finland, USA coaches blast “poorly run tournament” as reason for World Junior cancellation

If we didn’t see this coming, we sure should have.

What happens when you combine the biggest stage of the IIHF season, the IIHF, Canadian quarantine requirements, and a totally disorganized tournament?

The answer is, no World Juniors.

For the first time since their inception in 1977, the World Juniors have been cancelled. Late today, the IIHF said they might take place after the World Championships (which are in May) or in summer (which would also be after May), but nobody is too hopeful.

The reality is, this was a disaster from the start.

Four days before, the Alberta government dropped a bombshell when they limited crowds to 50% of capacity and took the draconian step of closing all concessions.

Yes, they expected people to sit there for six hours (two games a day) without as much as a glass of water. No wonder most opted for refunds. The tournament went from being 90% sold out to drawing no crowd as high as 5,000 - in arenas that seat 18,000 and 7,000. 

Not convinced? Listen to the words of Finnish coach Antti Pennanen, speaking to Finnish Newspaper Ilta Sanomat.

“I am angry because this was not a COVID problem, but the problem was that this was a poorly run tournament…..This says a lot about the state of the IIHF,” Pennanen told the Sanomat. 

USA coach Nate Leaman responded with a simple tweet: “100 percent.”

How bad was it? Despite talk of bubbling the players away from the arena and requiring players to be in Canada by Dec. 15 in order to quarantine before the tournament, it seems once the tournament started, organizers went a different direction.

Via Twitter Wednesday, Chris Peters of Hockey Sense and Daily Faceoff said, “Team officials have stated that their players are being extremely cautious, staying in their rooms, obeying all protocols and yet this still keeps happening. I’m told there is a wedding reception planned for the hotel USA and Sweden are staying in tonight. What else can they try to do?”

Corey Pronman of The Athletic replied via Twitter, stating, “One staff member on a European team in same hotel as USA in Red Deer calls the current Covid protocols and lack of isolations from the community “ridiculous,” saying they’ve come into contact with said wedding guests.”

Seriously? A wedding reception? They’re trying to pull off a major international hockey tournament, one that profits in the tens of millions most years when Canada hosts it, and they’re too cheap to rent out the entire hotel?

Shame. Shame on the IIHF for letting this happen. Shame on Hockey Canada for letting this happen. Shame on tournament organizers for letting this happen.

And now, a once in a lifetime chance for many players is gone. It’s hard to explain how big the World Juniors are unless you’ve been there, you’ve lived it. Bigger than the Stanley Cup? By far, having been to both three times. And the TV ratings are higher in most countries too. In Canada, the World Junior gold medal game, if it features Canada, outdraws the Stanley Cup by a significant margin most years. In Sweden and Finland, it can draw near total viewership from the country when their teams play.

This is big.

Canceling this is a result of a poorly run tournament, and a situation many of us saw coming from months ago. Is it a surprise? The only surprise to me is any games got played at all.

Would it have gone better had it been moved to a country with less restrictions, such as the US, Sweden, or Russia? In my opinion, yes. But we’ll never know.

Just like we’ll never know who would have won the tournament.

In the meantime, enjoy it, USA. Still the defending champions!

Fantilli, Bedard in tight race for 2023 first overall pick, was Fantilli slighted by Team Canada?

For the past two years, it has been a foregone conclusion WHL Regina Pats’ phenom Connor Bedard will go first in the 2023 NHL Draft. There’s no question the 5’9” forward has skill to spare, causing one observer to say he is “ten times better than (Sidney) Crosby at the same age.”

But Adam Fantilli of the USHL Chicago Steel is turning it into a race.

So far this season, Fantilli has outscored Bedard in what is traditionally a lower scoring league, posted a better plus-minus, and has shown more aptitude for the physical play. And at 6’2”, 190 lbs., he provides a far more intimidating presence than the much smaller Bedard.

While Regina sits ninth in their conference with a 11-15-0-0 record, which would put them on the outside looking in come playoff time, Fantilli’s Steel sit atop the USHL overall standings with a dominating 17-4-4-0 record.

It’s unfortunate we won’t get a look at the two head-to-head in this year’s World Juniors, as Canada has chosen to invite Bedard but not Fantilli (who hails from Ontario) to the selection camp, but the story of the 2023 World Juniors in Novosibirsk and Omsk, Russia, will almost certainly be these two dynamic players on the same team. 

Is Fantilli’s omission a slight against him or the USHL? Well, that’s up for debate. The facts are this - the USHL has had more draft picks than any of the three CHL (WHL, OHL, QMJHL) leagues the past two years, the USHL tends to be lower scoring, and Fantilli has better numbers.

Regardless, Fantilli will keep racking up the points for the Steel, whether or not he is noticed by Hockey Canada. In fact, it’s hard to remember a USHL player lacing up for Team Canada while playing in the USHL, so it’s not a surprise that he is not invited  

The question is, if Canada fails to win gold playing on home ice for the second consecutive season - with USA knocking off the hosts last year and expected to ice perhaps even a stronger squad this year - will there be any questioning in the Canadian media if Fantilli would have been the difference? Or does the Toronto-based hockey media even know he, or the USHL, exist?

Speculation in Lancers situation not helping things, uncertainty is the only certain

 This is normally the time of week this blog features a preview of this weekend’s games.

Apologies to those who were hoping for that, but I haven’t looked at the schedule.

The USHL community continues to be in shock over the turmoil around the Omaha Lancers, and the actions that caused the players to walkout. The league went to Omaha to investigate today, but as of 6 pm Central, there’s no further news to report.

Which means more days of media speculation and cryptic tweets from national/international hockey media members, such as Ryan Kennedy’s tweet that stated “If you can believe it, this Omaha story may get even stranger in the coming days...”

Talk about covering your bases. It may. It may get stranger. The coming days.

Ryan, if you know something and are prepared to go to press with it, that’s fine. But cryptic messages - especially from The Hockey News, a publication that has long covered major junior far more in-depth than the USHL (some around these parts would say they have a bias, I won’t comment either way) - just fan the fire.

Of course, the league, USA Hockey, whoever is in charge here, could have extinguished the fire with some kind of announcement today. Even if the announcement was they met with the players, they met with the owners, they had lunch at the Valentino’s Buffett and dinner at Runza - just give us something to work on other than media rumors.

But the shock here isn’t just this was happening in the USHL. This is the Omaha Lancers. THE Omaha Lancers. The team that invented the modern USHL. The franchise that, when owned by Ted Baer, reportedly could not get a lease at Aksarben Coliseum, since the facility was slated for demolition. The story goes, he went to Aksarben and said, give me six games. If I fail to sell out even one, then I go away. If I sell out all six, I have the lease. 

He sold out those six. And then a few more. In total, 241 consecutive sellouts at 6,124 fans in Aksarben Coliseum. Truth be told, there were many nights they could have sold twice as many seats if they had them. Along the way, they won an incredible five Clark Cups in the 1990s. 

The Lancers put the USHL on the map. People then started to notice, Des Moines is sold out every night, a smaller arena, but always 3,000. Sioux City and Waterloo drew well. This was not the early days of the 80s, when most of the league played to smallish crowds in Minnesota. The USHL was on the map.

Lincoln came along in 1996-97, selling out every game for more than five years, first at 4,231, then at 5,010. A Clark Cup in year one was icing on the cake. It seemed every new franchise was a success. Sioux Falls and Cedar Rapids. Tri-City. The late 90s and early 2000s was a boom time for the league, and it was all based on the Lancers’ lead.

It had often been said you don’t own a junior hockey team to make money, you own it because you love owning it. Suddenly, both were possible. Elsewhere in the junior hockey world, Washington-based WHL teams Tri-City, Seattle, and Spokane started to boom about the same time. Junior hockey had long avoided NHL markets in either country, but suddenly teams were doing well in suburban Detroit, Vancouver, Calgary, and Ottawa.

The Lancers were at the forefront of not just the change in the USHL, but the change in junior hockey.

Everything that followed in terms of successful teams led the quality of play to go up. The late 90s produced NHL players such as Ruslan Fedotenko, Duvie Westcott, Tyler Arnason, Ryan Malone, Rostislav Klesla, David Hale, among others. There was even a future NHL coach in Sioux City’s Dave Hakstol. 

The on-ice and off-ice success prompted the idea of a “Tier I” league, since it was obvious the USHL had moved ahead of the other top USA Hockey-sanctioned junior leagues, the NAHL and the AWHL. As a league, the USHL became the country’s sole Tier I league, a status they maintain to this day.

And it really started with Ted Baer and the Omaha Lancers.

That’s why this is so shocking. The Lancers have long been the gold standard, and they will be again one day. Today isn’t that day, but it will happen. There’s too much tradition, history, and continued potential. 

It’s just unfortunate we don’t have any clear cut answers after day one of the USHL investigation. Maybe it’s far too early to expect resolution, but an update to end the speculation would be welcome by all.