Clark Cup Final: On paper, Sioux City has the edge, but Madison is no pushover

With the USHL playing limited, if any, interconference play the past two seasons, it can be tough to know how teams line up heading into the Clark Cup Final.

This year, Sioux City comes in as the favorite in the minds of many, having swept regular season champion Tri-City 3 games to 0 in the Western Conference Final. Meanwhile, Madison, who made the playoffs by just three points, defeated Youngstown 2 games to 0 (both on the road), Chicago 2 games to 1, and Muskegon 3 games to 2 en route to the final.

Madison have been the road warriors, with just 3 of their 10 games being played on home ice.

It will be a clash of styles, as the Muskies - like the Western Conference as a whole - play best when playing physical, forechecking, and controlling the play. The Eastern Conference tends towards a run and gun, skating, high scoring style of play.

The team that adapts usually wins in this situation. Sioux City comes in on a strong roll, as they finished the season strong and have been dominant in the playoffs. 

WHY SIOUX CITY WILL WIN: They just beat the regular season champions. They have physicality, goal scoring, goaltending, and just about everything else you can think of. Three of five games are in Sioux City, but that is tempered somewhat by none of those games being on a Friday or Saturday night, while Madison’s two home games are on a Friday and Saturday.

WHY MADISON WILL WIN: The Capitols have shown an ability to play up to the opponent’s level this year - it was not a big surprise to see them beat Chicago, a team they played tough all season, winning 4 of 10 matchups. On paper, Madison doesn’t seem to have the edge in many categories, but they’ve had an intangible all season that seems to serve them well come playoff time.

PREDICTION: Early in the season, this looked like the possible Clark Cup Final. Along the way, it wasn’t as clear, but by the end, this is where we are. Madison’s speed and ability to score in bunches will give Sioux City some trouble, but the Muskies are too big, too physical, and too good not to win. Sioux City in four. 

USHL Conference Finals Predictions: When it’s too close to call, rely on intangibles

 The playoffs are always a sprint, not a marathon, but the first ten days were more like a 60 yard dash.

It took just ten days to play two rounds (both best-of-three) in the USHL playoffs, including the 24 hour series between Tri-City and Omaha. There was less than 24 hours from the start of game one until the finish of game two.

Now it gets a little more intense. The rest of the way, the league shifts to best-of-five series, starting with the conference finals that begin Friday night.

And what a series it should be in each conference. The #1 and #2 seeds meet in the West, while #3 and #5 battle in the east - but this is not a surprise. The East was that close most of the season, to the point nothing can truly be considered an upset. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: #1 Tri-City (45-11-3-1) vs #2 Sioux City (41-16-4-1)

WHY TRI-CITY WILL WIN: The Storm broke so many team records and USHL Tier I records this year, it barely fits on a shirt. Actaully, it’s been proven it does, but order a large size just to be sure. The goaltending tandem of Arsenii Sergeev and Sebastien Wraneschitz is second to none. Including overtime, Tri-City won 6 of 9 games against Sioux City this year. In reality, nobody had a good record against the Storm, Tri-City was that dominant. 

WHY SIOUX CITY WILL WIN: Lost in the talk about Tri-City’s remarkable season is the fact that Sioux City tied a Tier I era team record with 41 wins. The Muskies ended the year on an 8-2-0-0 run - but then again, Tri-City finished 7-1-1-1. Sioux City had the second fewest goals against with 169…but Tri-City had the fewest at 138. On paper, it seems like these are the top two teams in many ways.

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS: #3 Muskegon (33-23-3-3) vs #5 Madison (30-29-3-0)

WHY MUSKEGON WILL WIN: The Lumberjacks scored 256 goals in the regular season, just four less than league-leading Tri-City. After a slow start to the season, Muskegon claimed throughout the season, although a 5-5-0-0 record in their last 10 entering the playoffs left questions in some minds. Those were erased in a sweep of Cedar Rapids and an impressive victory over Dubuque in round two.

WHY MADISON WILL WIN: It doesn’t show up on paper. The team was one game above .500, they scored 233 goals but also gave up 233, they only finished 3 points ahead of the seventh place team - a team that missed the playoffs. But the game is not played on paper. Madison has had an intangible quality all season, they seem to rise to the big games, and they’ve had some impressive comebacks. When it comes to the “it” factor - the intangibles that can’t be quantified, that’s where the Capitols seem to shine. 

PREDICTIONS: This one is the hardest series to call yet. In the past, I’ve had good luck predicting based on the first really key test of the year, how does a team do? At least in the first key test I see. A few games in, both Sioux City and Madison seemed to have that particular intangible - it sounds ridiculous, but in the past, that has been the most reliable resource I have to predict a champion. A month in, I said Sioux City vs Madison, so I better stick with it. Take the upsets, but it’s going to be close - Sioux City in 5, Madison in 5.